VOTING ON TUESDAY – AT 12:47 P.M. ET:  There are major primaries on Tuesday, as well as a special election in Pennsylvania's 12th C.D. to replace the still-dead John Murtha.  The Politico asks some very good questions about Tuesday's voting, and how it will go down:

SPECIAL REPORT -- UNSOLVED MYSTERIES: With voting four days away, there are still a few big X factors in Tuesday's marquee Senate and House races. Here are our top questions that could determine what kind of day it will be: (1) Can Joe Sestak match the machine on Election Day? Arlen Specter has the support of Pennsylvania's Democratic turnout operation, which could give him an edge not shown in the polls.

We'd rather see Specter win the Dem primary for the Senate.  He'll be easier for GOP candidate Pat Toomey to beat in November than Sestak, who has a kind of surface charm.

(2) Who actually votes in Kentucky's Republican primary? It's a closed election in a state where plenty of conservatives are still registered Democrats, fogging the picture a bit.

Polls show that Republicans are about to commit suicide by nominating Rand Paul, nutbag son of super-nutbag Ron Paul, a fringe operator if there every was one.  Kentucky's senior senator, Mitch McConnell, is the Senate minority leader, and Rand Paul regularly attacks him.  Just what we need.

(3) How close does D.C. Morrison get to 10 percent in Arkansas? The higher the conservative Democrat's vote total, the likelier it is that Blanche Lincoln and Bill Halter head to a runoff.

I suspect this is irrelevant.  The GOP, if it plays its cards right, should take over Lincoln's U.S. Senate seat in November.

(4) Who's a more potent symbol in Johnstown, Bill Clinton or Nancy Pelosi? Each party is hoping one of those figures will turn out its base to vote in the PA-12 special.

It would be great if the GOP won Murtha's district, and it has a very good shot.

May 14, 2010